Czech Elections 2025: Prague at the Crossroads of Europe’s Security
On October 3–4, 2025, Czech citizens will cast their votes in parliamentary elections that carry weight well beyond domestic politics. Over the past year, Russia has stepped up its campaign of hybrid threats across Europe — including drone incursions, airspace violations, sabotage of infrastructure, cyberattacks, and massive disinformation campaigns. These actions show that the stakes are not abstract: Czech national security is directly tied to Europe’s collective resilience.
Babiš and the Shadow of the Past
The campaign is dominated by Andrej Babiš, leader of the ANO movement and one of the country’s most polarizing figures. Known for his populist tone and Eurosceptic agenda, Babiš has faced long-standing allegations of ties to Moscow. According to revelations in the Pandora Papers, he cooperated with the Czechoslovak secret police (StB) in the 1980s under the codename “Bureš”. While Czech lustration laws should disqualify such collaborators from public office, loopholes and missing files shielded him from consequences. Analysts believe that undisclosed documents may still exist in Russian archives, potentially giving Moscow leverage.
His business empire, Agrofert, and accusations of diverting EU subsidies for personal benefit during his premiership further raise questions about transparency and governance.
Security and Foreign Policy in the Spotlight
During this campaign, Babiš has carefully moderated his public statements on the war in Ukraine, but his position remains firm: if elected, he would end Czechia’s initiative to send ammunition to Kyiv, citing alleged irregularities. While he denies plans to pull out of the EU or NATO, his continued scepticism undermines confidence in Prague’s commitment to its Western alliances.
Influence Operations and Digital Warfare
In the run-up to the election, Czech cybersecurity firm Online Risk Labs identified around 300 TikTok accountsspreading pro-Russian content and boosting parties such as ANO, SPD, and Stačilo!. These accounts justified Moscow’s aggression, criticized EU and NATO membership, and promoted nationalist rhetoric. With weekly views of 5–9 million, they outperformed the official channels of major Czech politicians. Given that roughly 25% of Czechs actively use TikTok, these campaigns highlight the scale of online manipulation risks.
Refugees as a Political Battleground
Another contentious issue is the presence of Ukrainian refugees. Right-wing parties claim they drive inflation and pressure social systems. Yet official figures reveal the opposite: in the first half of 2025, refugees paid 15 billion CZK in taxes and contributions, while government support costs amounted to 7.6 billion CZK. Labour Minister Marian Jurečka emphasized that since 2023, revenues from refugees have consistently exceeded expenses.
Coalition Scenarios
If ANO does not secure the 101 seats required for a majority, Babiš will need coalition partners. Potential allies include SPD, Stačilo!, and Motoristé, parties that oppose deeper EU integration and call for “pragmatic” ties with Russia, China, and Iran. By contrast, the ruling coalition Spolu seeks to strengthen Czechia’s role in NATO and the EU, reinforcing European solidarity against hybrid threats.
A Decision Beyond Borders
The October election is about more than forming a government. It is a strategic test: whether Czechia remains a committed partner in defending Europe’s security, or whether populist and pro-Russian forces gain ground at the heart of Central Europe. The choice made in Prague will send a signal across the continent.Read more on BritPanorama
